I keep changing my mind about how to handle dropping some again. Today I consumed 1850, which is 1500 plus 350 for the exercise. After some discussion on an exercise forum, it seems likely that machine is fairly accurate except that I need to subtract ~80 calories for my normal awake but sedentary burn for 45 minutes. It's a high end machine that measured my HR, had my weight and provided the resistance so it likely computed watts and converted that, which is very accurate. The machine read over 500, which means that 420 would be about right and the 350 is just a little more conservative.

Anyway, I think I had a deficit of 200+ and will look for a bigger deficit tomorrow, assuming I do actually get out and paddle and get a chance to paddle hard.